Air traffic

Traffic recovery after the COVID outbreak has followed the trend forecasted in the previous report, namely a rebound in 2022 followed by a more moderate increase to reach 8.35 million flights at EU27+EFTA airports in 2023 (

), which is still 9% below the 2019 level. While low-cost and mainline carriers had an identical share of total flights in 2019 (one third each), the low-cost market post-COVID recovery was faster and had the largest share in 2023. After a peak in 2021, the number of cargo flights was back to pre-COVID levels in 2023, although the total tonnes of cargo transported was 5% lower than in 2019. In 2023, business jet operations exceeded the 2019 level by 10% after almost reaching their 2007 record of 700 000 annual flights during 2022. Several bankruptcies and the shift to low-cost airlines or high-speed rail on certain city pairs has driven the reduction in number of flights by regional airlines between 2019 and 2023. The number of passengers recovered faster from COVID than flights, with 774 million passengers flying from EU27+EFTA airports in 2023, which is just 4% below the 2019 level. This is in part due to the high average passenger load factor of 84.5%, which exceeded the previous 2019 record of 83.4%. The average distance per flight also reached a peak in 2023 (1 730 km), such that total passenger-kilometres were close to their pre-COVID level during that year. While the COVID outbreak had the greatest impact on aviation over the period 2020-2023, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the subsequent airspace closures and operator restrictions have also affected air traffic, with neighbouring airspace absorbing more traffic and diverted flights overloading the busy South-East axis. In addition, the EU sanctions have hindered the recovery of traffic between Europe and Asia. Since October 2023, the conflict in the Middle East has also had an impact on air traffic flows, especially overflights, and there has been a significant increase in military operations within European airspace.

As in previous reports, the traffic forecast out to 2050 includes three scenarios on how European aviation may develop in the future (

). These scenarios take economic growth, price of travel (including conventional and sustainable aviation fuel prices), sustainability goals and regulation into account, as well as airport capacity, high-speed rail and the arrival of new aircraft, fuel and propulsion. More details are provided in Appendix C. In the most-likely ‘base’ scenario the traffic at EU27+EFTA airports is expected to return to its 2019 level of 9.2 million flights in 2026, and then grow to 9.9 million flights in 2030 and 11.8 million flights in 2050, representing an average annual growth of 1.1% between 2025 and 2050. Over the same period and under the ‘base’ scenario, passenger-kilometres are expected to grow slightly faster at an average 1.3% per annum as the average aircraft size and flight distance both continue to increase. Under the ‘high’ scenario, flights and passenger-kilometres are assumed to grow by 1.6% and 1.8% per annum respectively between 2025 and 2050, while the ‘low’ scenario foresees almost no growth out to 2045. These growth rates are slightly lower than those in the previous traffic outlook. This is mostly driven by higher fuel price predictions and a revision of the maximum flight capacity at airports. The number of very short-haul flights (less than 500 km) decreased steeply between 2005 and 2013 and then stabilised until 2019, while the number of flights in other haul categories increased ( ). Very short-haul flights still represented 25% of all flights in 2023 but their post COVID recovery has been slower than other categories. Competition with high-speed rail is strongest for the short-haul category, with rail emerging as a favoured option in the context of growing environmental awareness and changing consumer preferences.

High-speed rail (HSR) often offers a competitive alternative to air travel on shorter routes, providing similar or even superior door-to-door (D2D) time efficiency. This capability has led to a shift in passenger preference from planes to trains on routes where HSR has been implemented. A 2024 study 

 shows that the market share of HSR on a given route is highly correlated to the D2D travel time reduction it offers compared to air travel. Even when travelling by train takes longer than by air, train can still take a significant share of passengers due to other factors such as price, frequency, punctuality, and comfort.

 

The study also highlights that improving the attractiveness of train, via faster connections or reduced fares, can lead to induced demand (i.e. increase the total number of passengers on a route) which may partly limit the environmental benefits of the modal shift. For example, the completion of the Madrid-Barcelona HSR link saw a 28% increase in the number of people travelling between these two cities. A multimodal approach that better integrates HSR with air travel can reduce the need for short-haul flights while maintaining high levels of connectivity and convenience for passengers. This could be achieved by improving the connectivity between the HSR network and hub airports (new infrastructure) and fostering partnerships between air and train operators to facilitate tickets purchase, baggage handling and management of delays.

As in previous reports, aviation connectivity is measured using the number of city pairs with more than 24 direct flights per year each way (

). Total connectivity in 2023 was just 4% below 2019 levels at about 7 700 city pairs. Intra-European connectivity has already exceeded its 2019 level mostly thanks to low-cost operators, but this does not compensate for the lower extra-European connectivity which still falls short of its 2019 level for all operator categories. Low-cost operators continue to offer more direct connections than mainline operators both inside and outside Europe.

The majority of aircraft which were parked during the COVID crisis have returned into service, leading to a rapid increase in average aircraft age for mainline, low-cost and charter carriers between 2021 and 2023 (

). Overall, the average age of the European fleet continues to increase and reached 11.8 years in 2023 compared to 11.6 years in 2021. The two notable exceptions are business jet aircraft which average age has stabilised around 12.5 years, and cargo aircraft which went down below 22 years again in 2023. The high average age of cargo aircraft is mainly driven by their low daily utilisation leading to longer amortisation periods for those aircraft, and the absence of purpose-built short-haul freighters leading to the use of converted single-aisle passenger aircraft for this market segment. The average retirement age of aircraft registered in Europe went down from 27.7 to 24.5 years between 2012 and 2022.

The night traffic at airports is driven by the economic models of the passenger and freighter markets, as well as the need for connectivity to other parts of the world. The proportion of flights that take-off or land during the nighttime period (23:00 to 07:00) at EU27+EFTA airports has increased since 2019 to reach about 5.5% of total traffic in 2023, even though the absolute number of night flights was still lower than in 2019 (

). This indicates that night traffic has recovered faster than total traffic after the COVID crisis. In 2023, the top 10 busiest airports during the nighttime period represented 27% of all night movements, which is similar to the share of the top 10 busiest airports during the daytime period (25%).

The hourly distribution of the total 2023 traffic (

) confirms that the number of arrival flights towards the beginning of the night period (22:00 to midnight) far exceeds departures, while departures exceed arrivals towards the end (06:00 to 08:00). 

All passenger-related indicators are for commercial flight departures only (other indicators include arrivals). Passenger kilometres are based on the shortest (great circle) distance between origin and destination. Cargo is for both all-cargo and passenger aircraft. (

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