Since the 1980s, Europe has been warming twice as fast as the global average, thereby becoming the fastest-warming continent on Earth
. As such, Regulation (EU) 2021/119, which is known as the ‘European Climate Law’ , requires Union institutions and Member States ‘to ensure continuous progress in enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change’.Adapting to climate change is a priority for the EU, which has adopted a ‘Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change’ in 2021
. This strategy addresses the need to improve the existing knowledge and management of the uncertainties associated with climate change and foresees the development of adaptation policies in all sectors.The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains that climate change magnifies the impacts of severe weather and climate related events, such as storms and hurricanes, heatwaves, heavy precipitation, river flooding, storm surges, droughts, wildfire, sand and dust storms. Such severe events are becoming both more intense and/or more frequent and occurring in new regions or at new times of the year, thereby leading to significant operational disruptions for aviation with an associated safety and economic impact. The first European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) published in 2024
has highlighted that Europe’s policies and adaptation actions are not keeping pace with the rapidly growing risks.Research on climate change in the coming decades has predicted:
- a significant increase of hazardous levels of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT)6 at typical cruise levels over Europe, North Atlantic, North America, North Pacific and Asia.
- an increase in frequency of severe thunderstorms (especially over southern Germany, Italy and southern France) with associated increasing risks for aircraft and ground equipment related to hail and lightning strikes.
- an increase of the duration and intensity of heatwaves in Europe, North America and Asia, decreasing aircraft take-off performance, potentially causing significant damage to ground infrastructure and equipment and health risks for passengers and personnel.
An overview of climate effects on commercial aviation safety/health, operations and infrastructure is provided in
More detailed information on scientific works regarding these trends can be consulted in the annual report of the EASA Scientific Committee .Given that the typical lifetime of aircraft and infrastructure equipment is several decades, costly or complex corrective measures to maintain an appropriate level of safety and service continuity may be incurred if the effects of climate change are not well anticipated (e.g. mandatory retrofit of airborne equipment, significant infrastructure modifications, operational restrictions).
As the European aviation network is heavily interconnected, disruption at one point can cascade across the network. In summer 2023, adverse weather delays were experienced in almost 1 in 4 days
. As such, risk assessments and the implementation of measures to enhance the resilience of all aspects of European commercial aviation should be a priority for action.In response to these climate effects, EASA decided to add this topic to the strategic priorities of the European Plan for Aviation Safety
, the regional aviation safety plan for Europe. In response to this decision, the EASA Scientific Committee has been reviewing the scientific publications on weather hazard trends caused by climate change, and which are a concern for commercial aviation. To date, this has covered trends regarding severe convective storms, clear air turbulence, airborne icing, dust storms and sandstorms, and surface temperatures. In addition, EASA has launched the European Network on Impact of Climate Change on Aviation (EN-ICCA) to assess weather hazard trends, their effect on aviation safety and effectiveness of mitigation measures .This work is performed in coordination with the ACI EUROPE and EUROCONTROL European Aviation Climate Change Adaptation Working Group (EACCA-WG), which provides aviation stakeholders with guidance, peer support and good practices on adapting to the impacts of climate change in both summer and winter
, . Further efforts in this area are also being undertaken in cooperation with ICAO , and WMO .There are essentially two types of strategies, which have already been implemented by some organisations, to address the increasing impact of severe weather events caused by climate change:
- Avoid or reduce exposure to the hazardous or disruptive effects of severe weather events through improved forecasting that allows aviation stakeholders to take measures to protect the aircraft, ground equipment and infrastructure. For example,
- enhancing capabilities of airborne weather radar, and training flight crews to use it;
- using advanced clear-air-turbulence (CAT) forecasts, combined with real-time observation data from multiple aircraft, to produce reliable and accurate CAT maps;
- uplinking satellite weather observation data to the cockpit throughout the flight to provide for better weather situational awareness; and
- positioning meteorologists at airports to enhance knowledge of local weather conditions and produce forecasts tailored for the airport operator and airport users.
- Increase the capability to withstand the effects of these severe weather events by adapting the design of assets (aircraft, ground safety equipment and infrastructure) and the way they are operated so that continuous safe operation can be ensured. For example,
- Enhancing take-off performance of new aircraft designs so they are less sensitive to high surface air temperatures;
- Ensuring the runway pavement is capable of withstanding high temperatures; and
- Increasing the capacity of the water drainage system of the airport.
6 A ‘Hazard’ designates a condition or an object with the potential to cause or contribute to an aircraft incident or accident (ICAO doc 9859, Safety Management Manual). CAT is turbulence occurring in cloudless regions. It is not detectable with a conventional radar, so that it typically occurs without warning.
