Overview of Aviation Sector

The number of flights arriving at and departing from EU27+EFTA airports reached 8.35 million in 2023, which is still 10% below the pre-COVID 2019 level.
Low-cost operators have recovered faster from the COVID crisis than mainline operators.
Since February 2022, flight operations have been affected by the war in Ukraine and the subsequent airspace and operator restrictions. From October 2023, some re-routings have also been caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
The average number of passengers (135) and distance (1 730 km) per flight continues to grow, as does the average fleet age (11.8 years).
Future traffic growth was revised downwards compared to previous outlook, with 9.4, 11.8 and 13.8 million flights now foreseen in 2050 under the low, base and high traffic scenario respectively.
At 98 major European airports during 2023, 3.4 million people were exposed to Lden 55 dB aircraft noise levels and 1.6 million people were exposed to more than 50 daily aircraft noise events above 70 dB.
While the total European airport noise exposure is still slightly below 2019 levels, there are different trends at the individual airport level with an increase in noise exposure at about one third of these major airports between 2019 and 2023.
Single-aisle jets generated 71% of the total landing and take-off noise energy in EU27+EFTA during 2023.
Fleet renewal could lead to a reduction in total noise exposure at European airports as measured by the Lden and Lnight indicators over the next twenty years. However, the evolution of these indicators may differ significantly between airports.
In 2023, flights departing from EU27+EFTA airports emitted 133 million tonnes CO2, which is 10% less than in 2019. Single and twin-aisle jets accounted for 77% of these flights and 96% of the CO2 emissions. 6% of the flights were long-haul (>4 000 km) and accounted for 46% of the CO2.
The average mass of CO2 emitted per passenger kilometre further reduced to 83 grams in 2023, equivalent to 3.3 litres of fuel per 100 passenger kilometres.
Market-based measures should help stabilise European aviation’s net CO2 emissions in the short term.
Meeting the ReFuelEU Aviation supply mandate for sustainable aviation fuels could cut the net CO2 emissions by at least 65 million tonnes (47%) in 2050.
NOX emissions have grown faster than CO2 emissions since 2005 and are expected to continue to do so without further improvement in engine technology.
In 2021, the sector accounted for 10% of the population exposed to transport noise above Lden 45 dB in EU27+EFTA.
In 2022, flights departing from EU27+EFTA represented 12% of total transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 4% of total GHG emissions in EU27+EFTA.
 
 

Analysis scope and assumptions

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Historical air traffic data in this section comes from Eurostat and EUROCONTROL. The coverage is all flights from or to airports in the European Union (EU27)1 and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The forecast of European flights comes from the EUROCONTROL Aviation Long-term Outlook 2050. For more details on models, analysis methods, forecasts, supporting data sources and assumptions used in this section, please refer to Appendix C.


1The geographical scope is constant through the entire time period covered in this Chapter. Consequently, the data does not include UK for those years preceding Brexit.

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